Prices on the global auto market have always depended on a lot of factors, among which not the last place is occupied by the rise in prices of production as a result of the introduction of more and more modern and expensive technologies, and the economic situation in the countries whose citizens are buying these cars.
So the states with a difficult situation, experiencing the oppression of a large increase in the inflation masses, traditionally observe abrupt and very significant increase in the cost of models.
But, not least, the import and purchase taxation policy always plays, for example, in Poland now the VAT is 23%, and in Ukraine – 17% and that, not for all types of machines.
That is why it is very difficult even for experienced analysts to build any accurate forecasts, because you do not know at all what the situation in the foreign policy and internal arena of each country will be in six months – and what plans for famous products will cherish for producing their products.
And, of course, in all this we must build on the current situation, so to speak about what will happen in 2019, you can only try to figure out what awaits us at the end of 2018.
In the current year, according to experts, everything will be ambiguous. The rapid growth of markets in developing countries will be strongly hampered by the pattern of stagnation of auto sales in rich countries. Therefore, in general, the dynamics of each month will resemble a completely wild swing.
At the same time, prominent players in the industry are now very closely engaged in popularizing the idea of eco-friendly cars, as well as the introduction of autopilots and other know-how, so they should expect aggressive marketing campaigns and strong indulgence in prices (up to 14-17%) at least in first time. Also the cheaper mass of Chinese investments, which, whatever one may say, are slowly conquering the world …
Scary numbers on the growth of the car market show China and India. Moreover, if previously a boom was observed only in the Middle Kingdom, the second country that is developing by leaps and bounds by the results of 2018 will show results not more modest.
If in the global market as a whole, sales grow by a maximum of 2-6%, and basically, it just does reformatting it from one technology to another while maintaining the stability of the total mass, then in these countries the growth is observed every year.
Across Europe, in comparison with other developed countries, they expect a slight revival, mainly due to the rush around new environmentally friendly and automatic technologies.
Car dealers are waiting for a spike in sales. But, not reducing the price of models by 1% due to the reduction of duties on European imports caused the market to rise, since the total cost reflected in the benefit of a maximum of 100-200 dollars on the price of each unit.
And because they are going to introduce preferential conditions for electric cars at all, completely freeing them from taxation (except for the 4.8% PF fee), which will contribute to popularizing the idea of eco-friendly cars in 2019, as well as increasing the population’s demand for them because of a serious fall in value (by 17% compared with Europe).
2018 will be a record year in sales for the used car segment as well, as it is the last in the outgoing period of preferential excise rates. After all, their price fell by an average of 2-4 thousand dollars, which made many people happy.
In Russia, analysts predict a rise in prices of almost 15% – AvtoVAZ set the tone last year, but the rest of the manufacturers will most likely not lag behind. Not only the general modernization of plants, which somehow need to compensate for all costs, but also growing inflation will play a role here.
In terms of imports, the European and American segment traditionally reduces supply volumes, for which many thanks must be said not only to the problems in foreign policy, but also to the excise tax on cars exceeding 200 hp, raised personally by the country’s leadership, as well as by increasing the amount of utilization tax.
As a result, prices here will rise by at least 4-5%. But China is flourishing in all Russian areas on Russian territory. And not only direct deliveries of their own brands, but also the organization of their production. And here the trend is logical, given the preferential relationship with the business of this country on all fronts.
The market used, as a compensatory practice, which, of course, of course, on the contrary, tipped a significant growth. Although, an increase of 15% in sales from him, of course, is somewhat naive.
In Belarus, given its closest linkage to the Russian economy, most likely, the same situation will be observed, except that with taxation everything will not be so painful, therefore the general price level will still be 5 percent lower.
In Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and a number of Central Asian countries, the situation will be no less bleak: the cost of foreign cars is steadily increasing by an average of one thousand dollars annually, which in percentage terms at the end of 2018 will result in values at the level of 10-20%.
But at the same time, which is strange, the purchasing power is growing, therefore, in general, sales will grow by 15-20%. In the countries of the Caspian and Caucasus region – the same. The general economic recession in Azerbaijan and the problems of domestic policy in Georgia, as well as other states of the region, will also play a role.
General trends, and almost all of the surveyed analysts agree on this, will continue, except that the numbers will not be so hard, and the fluctuation in the market between the indicators of specific countries will increase due to the logical periodic redistribution of resources.
Due to the expansion of investment funds, it is possible that the attractiveness of permanent alliances of prominent market players will decrease, so that we can see more competition, and, consequently, a more rapid fall in prices. And it is this factor against the background of the annual steady rise in prices that may make them stay at the same level as last year.
The completely unpredictable behavior of the Sino-Indian segment does not allow us to make a normal forecast for the world as a whole.
But, with fairly high certainty, we can expect that the prices of cars in Europe and the Americas will begin to stabilize, or maybe even fall, as the trends of 2018 will continue their escalation.
The used cars will rise in price if the Parliament of Ukraine does not extend the grace period for excise taxes. On electric cars, if they prolong tax breaks, it will be the same as in 2018. The rest is to wait for attracting investment and increasing competition in the local market, fraught, of course, cheaper prices, due to the launch of lines for the production of imported brands on the basis of domestic factories.
Russia in 2019 will continue to go the same course, however, prices will slightly slow down their agility in relation to growth, as analysts believe, and stop their inflation bar by 3-7%. It is expected that the news about the whole bouquet of domestic brands launched in the series and updated, as well as the promised annual indexation of the tax on the cost of each car, will also contribute to the excitement.
The Asian region has all the prerequisites to look into the future with optimism – it is planned to sign a mass of contracts with investors who will deploy production in these countries.
Which means that the market will be flooded with budget models, and their prices, respectively, will fall catastrophically, however, the exact figures on this issue, based on the nebula of prospects, have not yet been called experts. This will not fail to affect the second-hand market, which is expected to react even more sharply falling values.
It should be understood that the annual calendar swing, which operates almost equally in all countries, will certainly make its contribution to the forecast in the future.
This means that during periods of summer holidays and major holidays, as well as in winter, countries with a rather harsh climate have traditionally experienced a decline in purchasing power, with the result that dealers, trying to somehow attract the customer, begin to work on bright stocks and significant concessions. in prices.
True, all of these shamanistic dances all have little effect on the income of the industry. But, when a man in the street rested and saved up some money in the offseason once again rushes to the market, they will be there waiting for him fully armed with price tags upraised to the skies.